Carnival (CCL)
Consumer Discretionary · $41.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000815097
ahead of 84% of the S&P 500 · #12 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Dec 18, 2026, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.22 in earnings per share.
52-week range $21.45 to $34.03. 10% below its 52-week high and 43% above its low.
The case for CCL
- Cheap for its growth: 13.2× earnings, where 25%+ a year of growth would justify about 46×.
- Has compounded revenue at 36.6% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 24%.
- Pays a modest 1.5% dividend.
The case against
- Swings harder than the market (beta 2.44).
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 5.2% this year against 36.6% a year over five.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.27).
- Long-term debt of $24.0B against $1.9B of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 92 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 76 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 57 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 64 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 28 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +36.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.6B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 10% |
| Of profit | 94% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 55% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 16% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 7.7% → 10.4% → 11.4% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $1.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $24.0B |
| Net debt | $22.1B |
| Years to repay | 3.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 13.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | 15.9× |
| Forward P/E | 11.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× |
At 13.2× earnings it trades well below the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify. At 15.9× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Carnival's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $26.6B | $25.0B | $21.6B | $12.2B | $1.9B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +16% | +77% | +538% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.6B | $1.3B | $997M | −$6.6B | −$7.7B |
| Of revenue | 10% | 5% | 5% | −54% | −404% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 16.8% | 14.3% | 9.1% | −36.0% | −371.5% |
| Net margin | 10.4% | 7.7% | −0.3% | −50.1% | −498.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.9B | $1.2B | $2.4B | $4.0B | $8.9B |
| Long-term debt | $24.0B | $25.9B | $28.5B | $32.0B | $28.5B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$22.1B | −$24.7B | −$26.1B | −$27.9B | −$19.6B |
What Carnival says it does
A. Overview I. Summary Carnival Corporation was incorporated in Panama in 1974 and Carnival plc was incorporated in England and Wales in 2000. Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc operate a dual listed company whereby the businesses of Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc are combined through a number of contracts and through provisions in Carnival Corporation’s Articles of Incorporation and By-Laws and Carnival plc’s Articles of Association. The two companies operate as if they are a single economic enterprise with a single executive management team and identical Boards of Directors, but each has retained its separate legal identity. Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc are both public companies with separate stock exchange listings and their own shareholders. Together with their consolidated subsidiaries, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc are referred to collectively in this Form 10-K as “Carnival Corporation & plc,”…
Risk factors CCL lists in its 10-K
- b. Incidents concerning our ships, guests or the cruise industry may negatively impact the satisfaction of our guests and crew and lead to reputational damage
- c. Adverse weather conditions or an increase in the frequency and/or severity of adverse weather conditions could have a material impact on our business and results of operations
- d. Our targets, goals, aspirations, initiatives, public statements and disclosures, including those related to sustainability matters, may expose us to risks that may adversely impact our business
- g. Increases in fuel costs, changes in the types of fuel consumed and availability of fuel supply may adversely impact our scheduled itineraries and costs
- h. The loss of key team members, our inability to recruit or retain qualified shoreside and shipboard team members and increased labor costs could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations
- i. We rely on suppliers who are integral to the operations of our businesses. These suppliers and service providers may be unable to deliver on their commitments, which could negatively impact our business
- j. Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates may adversely impact our financial results
- k. Our investments in port destinations and exclusive islands may expose us to additional risks
- l. Overcapacity and competition in the cruise and land-based vacation industry may negatively impact our cruise sales, pricing and destination options
- m. Inability to implement our shipbuilding programs and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments may adversely impact our business operations and the satisfaction of our guests
- Compliance and Regulatory Risk Factors
- b. Factors associated with sustainability and the impact of GHG and other emissions on the environment could have a material impact on our business and operating results