eBay (EBAY)
Consumer Discretionary · $54.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0001065088
ahead of 42% of the S&P 500 · #25 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 16, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.54 in earnings per share.
52-week range $78.03 to $127.74. 3% below its 52-week high and 58% above its low.
The case for EBAY
- Earns 46% back on shareholder equity.
- Revenue growing 15.7% year over year.
- Gross margin of 73% absorbs cost shocks.
- Pays a modest 2.4% dividend.
- Within 3% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
- Up 44.4% over the past year.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 25.9× earnings, where 3% a year of growth plus a 2.4% dividend would justify about 16×.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.78).
- Growth is weak (29/100): revenue +15.7%, EPS −0.5%, +4.5% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 23 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 29 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 76 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 84 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 61 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +15.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $11.1B (+8%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 13% |
| Of profit | 71% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 73% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 20% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 19.2% → 18.3% → 16.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $1.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.0B |
| Net debt | $4.1B |
| Years to repay | 3.1 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 25.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| P/FCF | 37.8× |
| Forward P/E | 18.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 23.6× |
At 25.9× earnings it trades well above the 16× that 3% a year of growth plus a 2.4% dividend would justify. At 37.8× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from eBay's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $11.1B | $10.3B | $10.1B | $9.8B | $10.4B |
| Change on the year | +8% | +2% | +3% | −6% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.4B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $1.8B | $2.2B |
| Of revenue | 13% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 21% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 71.5% | 72.0% | 72.0% | 72.6% | 74.6% |
| Operating margin | 20.5% | 22.5% | 19.2% | 24.0% | 28.1% |
| Net margin | 18.3% | 19.2% | 27.4% | −13.0% | 130.6% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.9B | $2.4B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $1.4B |
| Long-term debt | $6.0B | $5.8B | $7.0B | $7.7B | $7.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$4.1B | −$3.3B | −$5.0B | −$5.6B | −$6.3B |
What eBay says it does
Unless otherwise expressly stated or the context otherwise requires, when we refer to “we,” “our,” “us,” “eBay” or the “Company” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, we mean eBay Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Overview Founded in 1995 in San Jose, California, eBay Inc. is a global commerce leader that connects people and builds communities to create economic opportunity for all. Our technology empowers millions of buyers and sellers in more than 190 markets around the world, providing everyone the opportunity to grow and thrive. Our Marketplace platforms, including our online marketplace located at www.ebay.com and its localized counterparts, our off-platform marketplaces and our suite of mobile apps, together, create one of the world's largest and most vibrant marketplaces for discovering great value and a unique selection. In 2025, eBay enabled nearly $80 billion of Gross Merchandise Volume (“GMV”). Our Strategy As a global…
Risk factors EBAY lists in its 10-K
- We experience significant variation in our operating and financial results, including GMV and net revenues
- We face intense competition that may materially harm our business
- The barriers to competition are low
- We may not keep up with buyer expectations
- We may not be able to engage consumers as effectively as our large competitors with broad ecosystems
- We cannot match the resources of all of our competitors
- We may not be able to match the flexibility and expertise of all specialist competitors
- Consumers have a wide variety of alternatives that compete against us
- Third-party search may direct consumers to our competitors
- We may not keep up with seller expectations
- We may struggle to keep up with local platforms in some geographies
- If our advertising products, including our Promoted Listings, are not competitive, we will lose advertising revenues and our business will be harmed
- Our business depends on consumer engagement and spending, which makes our results of operations particularly sensitive to shifts in, and events that impact, consumer confidence, platform engagement and buying trends
- We may not be able to keep pace with technological changes, including emerging AI technologies, and with changes in consumer demands and expectations
- Our international operations subject us to various uncertainties, costs and risks, which could harm our business
- Cross-border trade is an important source of revenue and profit for us, and changes to global trade policies can significantly impact our customers and materially harm our business
- Our buyer and seller trust and protection programs increase our costs and loss rate, and failure to manage such programs effectively can damage customers’ trust in transacting on our platforms, which could harm our business
- Systems failures and business interruptions could harm our business
- Our payments and financial services offerings require ongoing investment and subject us to substantial legal, operational and third-party risks
- We are subject to significant fraud risk on our platforms
- We face significant risk from cyberattacks and data security breaches
- Our success largely depends on attracting, retaining, and developing our senior managers and other key employees
- We and our customers depend in part on third parties for products and services, some of which are controlled by our competitors, and changes to these products and services could harm our business
- Our acquisitions, dispositions, joint ventures, strategic partnerships and strategic investments create potential material risks to our business
- We are subject to extensive and increasing regulation and oversight, which could adversely impact our business
- We face significant risk of liability for the actions of our customers, including products sold by sellers on our platforms
- Increasing levels of regulation in the areas of privacy, protection of user data and cybersecurity could harm our business
- We face risk from third parties that allege that we infringe, or are responsible when our customers infringe, on their intellectual property rights
- Our business and our sellers and buyers may be subject to evolving sales and other tax regimes in various jurisdictions, which may harm our business
- We may be unable to adequately protect or enforce our own intellectual property rights
- Our disclosures and stakeholder expectations related to environmental, social and governance matters may impose additional costs and expose us to new risks
- We may be exposed to claims and liabilities as a result of the Distribution of PayPal
- We may have exposure to greater than anticipated tax liabilities
- Fluctuations in interest rates, and changes in regulatory guidance related to such interest rates, could adversely impact our financial results
- We are exposed to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, which could negatively impact our financial results
- Our stock repurchases are discretionary and, even if effected, they may not achieve the desired objectives