Ford Motor Company (F)
Consumer Discretionary · $50.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0000037996
ahead of 2% of the S&P 500 · #47 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.37 in earnings per share.
52-week range $11.11 to $17.78. 31% below its 52-week high and 11% above its low.
The case for F
- Free cash flow of 24.9% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Pays a 5.8% dividend while you wait.
- Price/sales of 0.3× is lower than 100% of Consumer Discretionary companies.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −4.2%, return on equity −21%.
- Heavily leveraged. Debt is 4.4× equity.
- Pays a dividend while losing money over the last twelve months.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−1.4%).
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 31% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Value is weak (36/100): no earnings to pay for, 0.3× sales, 24.9% free-cash yield.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 36 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 31 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 8 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 28 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 21 |
- It is losing money, so it has no P/E; that counts against value rather than being skipped.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −1.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $187B (+1%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $12.5B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 7% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 7% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −4% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 3.2% → −4.4% → −4.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $23.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 4.42× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Hard to say: no earnings to price
| P/E | n/a (a loss) |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 24× |
| P/FCF | 4.0× |
| Forward P/E | 6.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 268.7× |
| Price / sales | 0.3× |
It has no earnings to price, so the verdict leans on its cash flow. At 4.0× free cash flow it trades well below the 24× that 5% a year of growth plus a 5.8% dividend would justify.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Ford Motor Company's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $187B | $185B | $176B | $158B | $136B |
| Change on the year | +1% | +5% | +11% | +16% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $12.5B | $6.7B | $6.7B | −$13.0M | $9.6B |
| Of revenue | 7% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | −4.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| Net margin | −4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | −1.3% | 13.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $23.4B | $22.9B | $24.9B | $25.1B | $20.5B |
What Ford Motor Company says it does
Ford Motor Company was incorporated in Delaware in 1919. We acquired the business of a Michigan company, also known as Ford Motor Company, which had been incorporated in 1903 to produce and sell automobiles designed and engineered by Henry Ford. We are a global company based in Dearborn, Michigan. With about 169,000 employees worldwide, the Company is committed to helping build a better world, where every person is free to move and pursue their dreams. The Company’s Ford+ plan for growth and value creation combines existing strengths, new capabilities, and always-on relationships with customers to enrich experiences for customers and deepen their loyalty. Ford develops and delivers innovative, must-have Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles, along with connected services, including BlueCruise (ADAS) and security. The Company offers freedom of choice through three customer-centered…
Risk factors F lists in its 10-K
- Ford’s long-term success depends on delivering the Ford+ plan, including improving cost competitiveness
- Ford may not realize the anticipated benefits of restructuring actions and such actions may cause Ford to incur significant charges, disrupt our operations, or harm our reputation
- Failure to develop and deploy secure digital services that appeal to customers, retain existing subscribers, and grow our subscription rates could have a negative impact on Ford’s business
- Ford’s ability to maintain a competitive cost structure could be affected by labor or other constraints
- Ford’s ability to attract, develop, grow, support, and reward talent is critical to its success and competitiveness
- Operational information systems, security systems, products, and services could be affected by cybersecurity incidents, ransomware attacks, and other disruptions and impact Ford, Ford Credit, their suppliers, and dealers
- Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States
- Industry sales volume can be volatile and could decline if there is a financial crisis, recession, public health emergency, or significant geopolitical event
- The impact of government incentives on Ford’s business has been and could continue to be significant, and Ford’s receipt of government incentives could be subject to reduction, termination, or clawback
- Ford Credit could experience higher-than-expected credit losses, lower-than-anticipated residual values, or higher-than-expected return volumes for leased vehicles
- Economic and demographic experience for pension and OPEB plans (e.g., discount rates or investment returns) could be worse than Ford has assumed
- Pension and other postretirement liabilities could adversely affect Ford’s liquidity and financial condition
- Ford Credit could be subject to new or increased credit regulations, consumer protection regulations, or other regulations