Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
Consumer Staples · $7.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0000024545
ahead of 38% of the S&P 500 · #24 of 36 in Consumer Staples
Next reports on Feb 16, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.89 in earnings per share.
52-week range $35.52 to $54.82. 27% below its 52-week high and 13% above its low.
The case for TAP
- Cheap for its growth: 8.3× earnings, where 1% a year of growth plus a 2.7% dividend would justify about 14×.
- Trades at 0.63× book value, below what the balance sheet says it owns.
- Free cash flow of 14.3% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Pays a 2.7% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.46).
The case against
- Revenue was flat on the year (−1.6%).
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.86).
- Profitability is weak (39/100): return on equity 9%, net margin 8.1%, gross margin 36%.
- The price trend is weak (29/100): −14.0% over a year, −6.3% over three months, 27% below its 52-week high.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 26 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 89 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 37 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 39 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 29 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 69 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −1.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.0B (−5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 8% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 36% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 8.2% → −16.4% → 8.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $897M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $3.9B |
| Net debt | $3.0B |
| Years to repay | 2.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 8.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 14× |
| P/FCF | 7.0× |
| Forward P/E | 8.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.4× |
At 8.3× earnings it trades well below the 14× that 1% a year of growth plus a 2.7% dividend would justify. At 7.0× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Molson Coors Beverage Company's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $13.0B | $13.7B | $13.9B | $12.8B | $12.4B |
| Change on the year | −5% | −1% | +8% | +3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $841M | $1.1B |
| Of revenue | 8% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 8% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 32.8% | 33.0% | 31.5% | 28.5% | 32.6% |
| Operating margin | −17.9% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 1.2% | 11.7% |
| Net margin | −16.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | −1.4% | 8.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $897M | $969M | $869M | $600M | $637M |
| Long-term debt | $3.9B | $6.1B | $5.3B | $6.2B | $6.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$3.0B | −$5.1B | −$4.4B | −$5.6B | −$6.0B |
What Molson Coors Beverage Company says it does
Unless otherwise noted in this report, any description of "we," "us" or "our" includes Molson Coors Beverage Company ("MCBC" or the "Company"), principally a holding company, and its operating and non-operating subsidiaries included within its reporting segments. Our reporting segments include the Americas and EMEA&APAC. Unless otherwise indicated, information in this report is presented in USD and comparisons are to comparable prior periods. Our primary operating currencies, other than the USD, include the CAD, the GBP and our Central European operating currencies, such as the EUR, CZK, RON and RSD. Business and Market Overview Our History For more than two centuries, we have brewed beverages that unite people to celebrate all life’s moments. From our core power brands, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Molson Canadian, Carling and Ožujsko, to our above premium brands, including Madrí Excepcional, Staropramen, Blue Moon Belgian…
Risk factors TAP lists in its 10-K
- Information About Our Executive Officers
- Carling, Staropramen, Coors, Madrí Excepcional,
- Our restructuring activities may not be successful and the estimated costs associated with such activities may be more than expected, and our restructuring activities may adversely impact employee hiring and retention
- Changes in the social acceptability, perceptions and the political view of the beverage categories in which we operate, including alcohol, could adversely affect our business
- The success of our business relies heavily on brand image, reputation, product quality and protection of intellectual property
- Cybersecurity incidents impacting our information systems and violations of data privacy laws and regulations could disrupt our business operations and adversely impact our reputation and results of operations
- The integration and use of artificial intelligence and similar technology in our business presents challenges and risks that could adversely impact our business, reputation and results of operations
- Because of our reliance on third-party service providers and internal and outsourced systems for our information technology and certain other administrative functions, we could experience a disruption to our business
- Due to a high concentration of workers represented by unions or works councils, we could be significantly affected by labor strikes, work stoppages or other employee-related issues
- Climate change and other weather events may negatively affect our business and financial results
- An inadequate supply or availability of quality water could have a material adverse effect on, among other things, our sales, production processes, other costs and, in turn, profitability
- Poor investment performance of pension plan holdings and other factors impacting pension plan costs and contributions could unfavorably affect our business, liquidity and our financial results
- Complications in the design or implementation of our expanded and optimized enterprise resource planning ("ERP") system could adversely affect our business and operations
- Our debt level subjects us to financial and operating risks and the agreements governing such debt subject us to financial and operating covenants and restrictions
- A deterioration in our credit rating could increase our borrowing rates or have an adverse effect on our ability to obtain future financing or refinance current debt
- Default by, or failure of, one or more of our counterparty financial institutions could cause us to incur significant losses
- We may incur impairments of the carrying value of our goodwill and other intangible assets which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results
- Changes in environmental, trade or other regulations or failure to comply with existing licensing, trade and other regulations could cause volatility or have a material adverse effect on our business and financial results
- Changes in tax laws, regulations or tax rates could cause volatility or have a material adverse effect on our business and financial results
- Unfavorable outcomes of legal or regulatory matters may adversely affect our business and financial condition and damage our reputation
- Our operations in developing and emerging markets expose us to additional risks, which could harm our business and financial results
- Changes to the regulation of the distribution systems for our products could adversely affect our business and financial results
- Risks associated with operating our joint ventures or other strategic partnerships may materially adversely affect our business and financial results
- Failure to successfully identify, complete or integrate attractive acquisitions, joint ventures and other strategic partnerships into our existing operations could have an adverse effect on our business and financial results
- Government mandated changes to the retail distribution model resulting from new regulations may have a material adverse effect on our Canada business
- Indemnities provided to the purchaser of our previous interest in the Cervejarias Kaiser Brasil S.A. ("Kaiser") business in Brazil could result in future cash outflows and statement of operations charges
- Economic trends and intense competition in European markets could unfavorably affect our profitability
- Shareholder activism efforts or unsolicited takeover proposals could cause a material disruption to our business and financial results